Polls

There was some interesting presidential polling data in the news from yesterday. CNN reports that Bush's lead in the Gallup Poll increased to 13 percent (8 percent among registered voters). Meanwhile a poll by the Pew Research Center shows the president's lead going from double digits to no statistically significant lead at all.

When the polls disagree, I always refer back to the Iowa Electronic Market, which has a pretty good record at predicting the popular vote over the years. The IEM is showing roughly a 51 to 49 lead for Bush at the time of this writing. This graph shows how sentiment has changed over the last few months. The popular vote, at any rate, looks too close to call. But as the elections of 2000 and 1888 remind us, it is the electoral vote that counts. Tim Russert said it best in 2000 when he wrote "Florida, Florida, Florida" on his whiteboard before anyone knew how prophetic he would turn out to be.

So is it going to be Florida again? I'm not ready to say yet whether Florida will decide the election, but it, like Missouri, is almost certain to be a bellwether state. A close call in Florida will mean a long night on November 2nd whether they cast the deciding electoral vote or not.