And that goes for election prediction websites too. I'm looking at this as objectively as I can. Look at the contrast in the maps at electoral-vote.com and MSNBC. On Monday morning, electoral-vote.com had Hawaii in the Bush column. I don't think so. All I can figure is that this is just an example of how bad some polls can be. The same site has New Mexico and Ohio for Bush, albeit weakly. By the same token, I find it hard to accept New Hampshire being a tossup state as it is on MSNBC's website.
As I see it today, New Mexico is a tossup, leaning Kerry. Electoral-vote.com has to be joking about Hawaii, and NH will not turn its back on its neighboring state's senator. Nevada is hard to read because Las Vegas (which will tend Democratic) is growing faster than the rural (Republican) areas.
If Kerry wins either Ohio or Florida, then Bush must win both Colorado and New Mexico to win. I'm not ready to declare Ohio as this year's one and only pivotal state, but we're kidding ourselves if we don't admit that Ohio and Florida are the important states. Keep in mind that Ohio is in the eastern time zone and Florida has a small part in the central time zone. Thus, to be fair, the networks should hold off on calling Florida (not that they won't be a little gun-shy about calling Florida too early anyway). So in that sense, Ohio is key because we'll know the result sooner. An early Kerry victory in Ohio and all of a sudden FL, MN, IA, WI, CO, and NM become very important. If Bush wins OH and FL, then Kerry needs to sweep CO, NM, IA, and either MN or WI. That's not impossible, but neither is it easy.
No one is going to bed early on Nov. 2nd.
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