« NBC calls Ohio | Main | My best IEM trade ever »
November 3, 2004
A look ahead
Things seem to be breaking in favor of Bush. It will be interesting to see how close the big states (OH and FL) are to see if there will be any challenges. It will depend on the provisional ballots, absentee ballots, and so on. I'm watching NBC and MSNBC mostly tonight. Their analysis of Ohio has been absolutely fascinating. This will keep people talking for a long time.
The real story here is that the exit polls all night have been wrong. Theories abound.
Even so, I don't think Kerry will concede tonight unless Bush absolutely runs away with Ohio, and maybe not even then.
Bush and Cheney might address the nation tonight (this morning), this prediction based off of seeing the VP motorcade heading to the White House on one of the networks as I flipped around.
I'm ready to call it, but it is not exactly the way I expected to.
Tim Russert just said that is going to be very hard to put together a winning coalition of states without Ohio and Florida.
Indeed.
Posted by William Polley at November 3, 2004 12:00 AM