As I write, it is 8 1/2 hours to midnight in the east. 8 1/2 hours until the voting starts (and ends) in Dixville Notch, NH. The tiny town has a tradition of voting first in the nation. Some 20 hours later, the real fun begins.
I don't have a real prediction in the sense of saying that I think one candidate is sure to win. I do think that the popular vote will be decided by less than 2 percent in either direction and that a tie in the electoral vote is more possible this year than at any time in our past. I would put the probability of an electoral vote tie at about 20% right now. What, you ask, yields a tie? Among other things, Kerry takes PA, OR, WA, HI, OH, MI, ME, NH, and IA while Bush takes, CO, AZ, NM, FL, and WV. Notably missing from this equation are MN and WI. They would need to split those two (10 votes each) to end in a tie.
I don't think Bush can win without Florida, and with FL and Ohio he's unbeatable. Kerry can't with without PA, but I also don't see how he can lose his wife's home state. Iowa is also crucial for Kerry. Only 7 votes, but I think that the vote in Iowa will representative of what is happening in other battleground states. If Bush wins Iowa, he has a landslide. If Kerry wins Iowa, it's not over. Likewise, another small benchmark state will be WV. If Kerry can win there, he'll have the landslide. If Bush takes it, he's still in the game. Look for these kind of indicators tomorrow night to gauge where things are going.
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