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November 3, 2004
The IEM nailed it...vote share, at least
The Iowa Electronic Market, which I have referenced often on this blog, did one thing very well. It consistently predicted Bush receiving the majority of the two party vote. Polling data had some problems this time around, that is for sure. Alan Bjerga mentions the polls among other things in his post-election reflection. But you never really heard much about nationwide polls this time. The polls were all focused on the battleground states. Maybe next time the IEM should do a battleground poll.
The winner-take-all market reflected the uncertainty in that prediction. Even though the vote share was dead-on, the winner-take-all made a big swing back and forth at the end, indicating Kerry before the polls closed, but then very quickly--and I mean you could watch it changing before your eyes--switching to Bush as the returns came in.
All in all, not bad for the IEM. I think it worked a little better than in 2000. In fact, this sort of result (51-49 or 52-48) seems to be where it is a really useful tool.
Posted by William Polley at November 3, 2004 2:00 PM