Nothing really new or unexpected. The week ended as it began, but there was a bit of movement during the week in the predictions for October. David points out that the probability of a pause in the rate hikes took an upward turn early in the week. It looks like that was due to a dive in the probability of being at 3.75% (3 more quarter point increases) in October. The probabilities of all the other outcomes went up--a pause (3.25% or 3.5%) or a more aggressive stance (4.0%). Not sure I can explain that either. I can understand the suddent jump in the probability of 4.0% jumping with the employment report. Could it be just a result of thin trading that far out into the future and a sudden lack of interest in 3.75% that pushed everything else up? Who knows. It only lasted a couple days anyway.
Thank you, David, for the updates.
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