Fed funds futures: Business as usual

Macroblog has the weekly update. Note that for one brief moment, it looked like the market was anticipating a pause in the rate hikes until the PPI and retail sales numbers came in. But now it once again looks like the most likely outcome in the eyes of the market is for another 75 basis points by October.

There are 3 meetings between now and October, so the expectation of 25 b.p. per meeting seems to be holding.

I don't think I even need to mention that the implied probability of a 25 b.p. increase at the next meeting is almost 100%.