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September 19, 2005
Update on Rita (not what we wanted to hear)
Northern Illinois University has a staff meteorologist. His concern is obvious in what follows. (Hat tip: Cold Spring Shops)
Note, I'm not sure if the link is stable of if it always updates to give the lastest info. In any case, I'll quote from the 3:30CDT brief.
Rita. I looked at the latest model data and I just shook my head. Here's what the media and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) AREN'T telling you: the model late this morning shifted the track eastward from what they are showing here as of 11 AM Monday:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/153924.shtml?5day
The latest GFDL model, one of the best hurricane models out there, is in fact showing a 150 MPH hurricane (strong category 4) slamming into New Orleans on Friday, with the NHC model taking it right through the city as well. The official NHC track will be adjusted eastward later today; they like to be conservative and want to make sure this thing is heading into Louisiana before they cause inevitable alarm along the Gulf coast. However, they should have 60 hours of lead time on this one, wherever it heads inland. The Gulf of Mexico has recovered almost completely from Rita; the coolest water temperatures are at 86 degrees, and 85 degrees will easily support a major hurricane. All indications are that Rita will intensify rapidly once it gets by Florida and increase to a category 4 or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale with sustained winds of 135 MPH and higher. Barring unforeseen miracles, this should hit the U.S. as a potentially catastrophic hurricane around Friday somewhere along the Texas or Louisiana Gulf coast, potentially as strong as Katrina.
As of 1 AM, here were the forecast model and NHC forecast tracks of Rita. The latest GFDL, not shown, is further east and is near the track of the "NHC98" model which also takes it into New Orleans.
http://weather.admin.niu.edu/rita.gif
Again, since this image was produced, most of the models that have just been run have shifted the forecast further eastward.
Here's the latest from the National Weather Service. The forecast track has indeed been revised eastward. Remember, the east side of the eye wall has the strongest winds and the strongest surge because of the combined speed of the rotation and the forward movement.
Posted by William Polley at September 19, 2005 8:16 PM
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