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January 24, 2006
Canada votes
Well, my prediction that the Liberals would keep their hold on the Canadian government turned out to be wrong. Post-election observations:
1. The Conservatives did better in Quebec than I expected.
2. The Liberals did better elsewhere than a lot of people expected.
3. The NDP really shook things up (at the time of this writing, they were up 9 seats from the last election).
I happened to be visiting Canada back in 2003 when the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives was announced and it was all over the news. (I was there for the IAES Conference.) It was very interesting. I remember thinking that this new Conservative party would score a big victory within a few years. Certainly the 2004 election was a step in that direction. I figured that in one or two more elections they might win a majority. I didn't think it would happen like this.
And now the Conservatives have a government, but since they have fewer seats than the Liberals and the NDP combined (and fewer than the Liberals alone won in 2004) it will be difficult to advance their agenda. NDP leader Jack Layton suggested as much in his post-election remarks.
So what to make of the Liberals? With a stronger than expected showing and with a new (still to be determined) leader at the helm, they could emerge stronger next time. That would suggest to me that the next election will be just as close. And if the Conservatives don't deliver for Quebec, they could watch their margin evaporate.
If someone can breathe new life into the Liberals and the NDP gains a few more seats in the next election, the Conservative government will be short lived.
Americans can think of it this way... imagine the Republicans leading the Congress with a quarter of the members being of a 3rd (and 4th) party that is not on board with their agenda.
I know very little about the NDP. Until tonight, they were a marginal presence at best. But they made strong gains, and have their power concentrated in BC and Ontario (at the moment, it looks like the NDP beat the Liberals in BC). I would like to know more about them. They will, I think, hold the balance of power until and unless one of the two major parties breaks one way or the other.
The Conservatives have been given an opportunity to show Canada what they've got much earlier than most people would have expected back in late 2003. Their future in the next decade will be determined by what they do with that opportunity in the coming months. It's been a meteoric rise to power. Will it last?
Who will lead the Liberals? Will Quebec tilt even more to the Conservatives? Will the NDP continue to grow in influence? This is pretty exciting stuff. If you're burned out on U.S. politics, check out what's going on north of the border. I'm not even Canadian, and I'm hooked.
The Globe and Mail, of course, has complete coverage.
Posted by William Polley at January 24, 2006 12:47 AM
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