The minutes of the March meeting are out.
Reuters has the story.
Barry Ritholtz says, "We remain as data dependent as ever..." Can't say I disagree with that.
Dave Altig checks out the probability charts and sees a slight, but discernable, shift in the air.
Mark Thoma quotes from Janet Yellen's speech.
It did seem to me that the minutes went into a lot of detail on the discussions of how to word the statement and the fact that the FOMC members realize just how much the market makes out of these statements. For example, take a look at this passage:
Changes in the sentence on the balance of risks to the Committee's objectives were discussed. Several members were concerned that market participants might not fully appreciate the extent to which future policy action will depend on incoming economic data, especially when an end to the tightening process seems likely to be near. Some members expressed concern that retention of the phrase "some further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks...roughly in balance" could be misconstrued as suggesting that the Committee thought that several further tightening steps were likely to be necessary. Nonetheless, all concurred that the current risk assessment could be retained at this meeting.
Given that the intermeeting release of the minutes is now part of the information cycle, it is not out of line to think that this could be warming us up for a change in the language--possibly, but not certainly, at the May meeting. But it does seem clear that a pause in the rate hikes is coming soon--they just aren't quite ready to telegraph to the markets exactly when. To do so would inhibit their flexibility in either direction.
Barry is right. We are as data dependent as ever. Even more so.
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