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May 29, 2006
Still data dependent
Blogging has been light for a while so that I can work on some other projects. I do plan to resume a more typical posting schedule now. I've been thinking a lot about fiscal policy lately and will post some thoughts on that soon. Of course, we've got another month to go before the FOMC meets again. But I have to be honest. Nothing in the last few days worth of data has changed my opinion that another rate hike is more likely than not. See, for example, this post by David Altig on the PCE. The May employment report is probably the next data point of sufficient importance to potentially shift the prevailing winds. What about the recent report that GDP rose faster than we thought? Old news. Inventories were building up faster, and the revised number probably includes some effect from the hurricanes last fall. It doesn't do much to strengthen the case for a pause, but neither does it make me want to slam on the brakes.
Much more to talk about later in the week. In the meantime, have a great Memorial Day.
Posted by William Polley at May 29, 2006 1:36 AM
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