John Tierney writes in the NY Times:
Five years ago, Dr. [Martin] Rees posted this prediction: “By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.” He reasoned that “by 2020 there will be thousands — even millions — of people with the capability to cause a catastrophic biological disaster. My concern is not only organized terrorist groups, but individual weirdos with the mindset of the people who now design computer viruses.”
He didn’t get any takers on LongBets.org, which seems to me a missed opportunity. So I’ve posted an offer there to bet him $200 — not a huge sum, but enough to put both our reputations on the line. I realize that betting on disaster may sound ghoulish, but neither of us will personally profit (if I win, the money goes to the International Red Cross). And I think bets like this serve a purpose.
This jogged my memory. In August 2005, he proposed a bet with Matthew Simmons concerning the price of oil. Simmons predicts we will see $200 per barrel by 2010. Here's what I said:
I'm sure someone has already told them that they should get their bet on the record for all to see at longbets.org. If not, I just did.
I e-mailed Tierney as well. Whether it was me or someone else who got him to check out longbets.org, he appears to have latched on to the concept.
Oh, and I hope Tierney wins this one too.
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