I just checked the Fed Funds Binary Options on the Chicago Board of Trade. Here is a link, but I do not know how stable it is. When trading opens tomorrow, the quotes will be different anyway.
Note to self: WIU economics faculty and students usually make a trip up to Chicago to see the Board of Trade every year. I am one of the faculty who works on scheduling and arranging the trip. I must do what I can to see if we can get up there on an FOMC day this fall.
From the closing quotes, it looks like it was an exciting afternoon. In fact, I was watching CNBC when the announcement came and at the moment the reporter started reading the statement the trading pit in Chicago erupted. That's the only word that comes to mind. The quotes tell the story of what they were yelling about.
Rather than detail them all, I will focus on just the call options with a strike price of 94750 (pays 100 if the target funds rate is less than 5.25% on the expiration date).
Sept07 down 7 to close at 22.
Oct07 down 6 to close at 32.
Dec07 down 18 to close at 32.
I think these pretty much speak for themselves. Roughly speaking, the market is saying that if they do cut, they cut by October. But it's only a 1 in 3 chance that they do it at all (this year).
UPDATE: The NY Times editors are in denial.
Despite the Federal Reserve’s stay-the-course message yesterday, investors are betting on at least one interest-rate cut by January, intended to quell turmoil in the markets and to juice the slow economy.
A couple days ago the market was saying it was 50-50. Now the market is saying it's (roughly) 2:1 against (or 1 in 3 that they will, if you prefer). Looks to me like some of them switched their bets.
They would have done well to listen to Cassandra.
Shame on you!!!!
32% equals 2 to 1 odds against an EASE..
actually 2.13:1..
stan
Same thing. 1 chance in 3 (or 1/3 probability) that they will equals 2:1 odds that they won't. I said "chance" not "odds". Both are correct. I actually thought about writing it as 2:1 but decided to phrase it as a probability instead.
regardng the footage of the bridge collapse...this MNDot scene posted on fox9 shows a view from what looks like the middle of the bridge facing north towards the University Ave exit. This footage goes on like this with no actual collapse-did they only show us up to the second before the collapse? If you watch carefully-I think you can feel through the camera, the bridge move-the shot towards the end is not steady. I watch the traffic coming towards me in it and dont see the school bus or the Taystee truck-thankfully. NTSB must have the following scenes.
http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/myfox/pages/Home/Detail;jsessionid=E27AD613189CDBF6B359D9A5DF69B2C8?contentId=4008029&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=VSTY&pageId=1.1.1&sflg=1
I'm trying to figure the video you sent. It appears to be from the bridge itself, looking, as you say towards the north. Clearly the highway sign is the one for Univ. and 4th. The church steeple is on the north bank and the shadows are pointing east, so the time is right.
But the Washington Ave. camera was pointed the other way when the bridge collapsed, and the location doesn't seem right for Washington Ave. It's clearly not the 4th street camera either. Too far away.
What camera is this? Is it one that was not listed on the MnDOT page? Very curious.