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June 26, 2008
The NY Times goes in search of a good root beer
They get one critical aspect wrong, however. (link to article)
We tasted 25 different root beers, not from frosty mugs but in our usual wine glasses. This was a clinical environment, after all, a time for analysis and debate. Frosty mugs? We don’t need no stinkin’ frosty mugs!
Wine glasses? That shouldn't be legal. Anyway, they give 2 stars to Fitz's and 3 stars to IBC. Personally, I would argue the reverse. Stephen Karlson will be happy to know that Sprecher's garnered 3 stars.
The article also links to this rating site for root beer. (Ah, this Internet. We do indeed live in wonderful times.)
But the best root beer I've ever tasted would have to be 1919 root beer. It might be a little tough for you to find, however, as it is a draft root beer--no bottles or cans for this precious drink. The last time I had it was about a year ago at the Whiskey River Emporium in St. Peter, Minn. Southern Minnesota is about the only place I know of where restaurants serve it. It's a must when I pass through the area.
Posted by William Polley at 02:33 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
June 25, 2008
FOMC holds steady as expected
You didn't really think they'd raise rates at this meeting, did you? Here's the full statement:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.
Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.
The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year. However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high.
The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time. Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
Michael Mandel thinks that the Fed should have cut. I haven't seen too many others jump on that bandwagon. Barry Ritholtz thinks that statement is "too cheery on growth, not concerned enough about inflation -- and is totally irrelevant". Mark Thoma does the side-by-side with the last statement and writes that "There aren't many clues about the future in the statement..."
I don't know about that. I happen to think that this statement paves the way for standing pat for the rest of 2008. They seem to be extending the time horizon for when to expect inflation pressures to moderate ("later this year and next year") and they took out the part about it being necessary to "monitor inflation developments carefully".
So Mandel thinks a cut is in order. One can speculate about what a Greenspan Fed might have done in this situation. I certainly know what Wall Street would like. In the face of that, it seems that Mr. Bernanke might be following the right course. He's waiting for real rates to come up on their own as the economy recovers. I think that's the way to interpret it, and I think this course is less bad than some of the other options.
From the dissenters at the last couple of meetings, it looks like Fisher is trying to stay one step more hawkish than the chairman--now dissenting by voting for a rate hike in the face of the majority holding steady (previously he voted to hold steady when the majority wanted a cut). Plosser's votes (dissenting by voting to hold steady rather than cut in April but voting with the majority to hold steady now) are probably more fundamentally in line with Bernanke's thinking about where they want to be down the road (assuming the inflation forecasts are right), but he looks to have wanted a little bit more of a start at getting the real rate up where it should be.
If inflation shows any progress downward, I think they'll stay here as long as they can. If not, then rates probably go up in 2009. But this statement gives me the impression that they are prepared to give inflation some more time before they pull the trigger.
Posted by William Polley at 11:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Leonid Hurwicz, pioneer of mechanism design 1917-2008
Leo Hurwicz, recipient of the 2008 Nobel in economics has passed away at the age of 90. He was the oldest person to receive the prize.
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2007
Here's my post from last October upon Hurwicz, Maskin, and Myerson receiving the prize.
Posted by William Polley at 11:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 18, 2008
Midwest flooding
Thankfully, our location is safe from the floods that you have seen on national (and international) news. However, there are subtle reminders that we are not far removed from what is truly a natural disaster. As I drove through town yesterday, I saw trucks heading out of town towards the Mississippi carrying large quantities of concrete highway barriers. No doubt these were headed for the river to be used as traffic control or as part of a temporary flood barrier. When you see things like that heading out in the direction of trouble, you realize how close you are. Local radio stations have been broadcasting road closures and bridge closures as part of the newscasts. My weather radio woke me up yesterday with an alert for the levee breach in Gulfport.
We are approximately 40 miles from the Mississippi at Keokuk and about 45 miles from both Fort Madison and Burlington, Iowa. For a brief time, I believe all three bridge crossings were closed (and Quincy was down from 4 lanes to 2). At last report, the bridge at Burlington is still closed, Fort Madison is open, and Keokuk is advised for local traffic only. Fortunately, we have not needed to cross the river lately.
All this flooding is due to rains in northern and central Iowa a couple of weeks ago. Hence, the tributary rivers on the Illinois side are fine. (UPDATE: Let me restate that... tributaries on the Illinois side are not at record levels, and some are not even at flood stage. Some are, however, above flood stage, but nothing like those in Iowa.) This also means that while Iowa suffered from incredible floods, worse than the big flood of '93, as the water moves down the Mississippi, the effects will diminish. In '93, the Missouri and other rivers were swollen as well. This pushed the water higher at St. Louis. This time around, the major tributaries just above St. Louis (the Missouri and the Illinois) are fine. The Mississippi has a lot of room to spread out there, and so everything from St. Louis and below should stay well below the '93 levels... as long as we don't get a lot of rain.
I moved to Iowa City/Coralville in 1994 to start grad school. There were still reminders of the '93 flood around town, and lots of stories from grad students who had been through it (mostly having to do with the effects of lack of showering and confined office spaces). There were some pictures, though those were pre-digital photo and pre-Internet days. What I am seeing on Flickr and on the Press-Citizen websites are a lot worse than the pictures I saw back then. So many of my old haunts were completely underwater--over a person's head. Just incredible.
In most places, the water is receding or will be shortly. Then the cleanup begins.
Posted by William Polley at 10:19 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
June 12, 2008
Cedar Rapids, Iowa: Underwater
The pictures out of Cedar Rapids (a place I have been innumerable times) are just devastating.
The levees broke, and the river crest will shatter the mark from the flood of '93 as well as the record high set in 1929.
In the pictures, and perhaps on the news broadcasts tonight you will see the city hall building on an island in the river. I was at that very spot a few months ago. I parked on the bridge, which normally is far above the surface of the water.
Now that bridge is underwater all the way up to the railings. A terrible sight.
The people there will bounce back, but it's going to be a tough summer.
Posted by William Polley at 06:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 11, 2008
An interesting science blog... and other news
This is one that I bookmarked a long time ago, but haven't gotten around to blogging until now. Science Progress. And here is a story on the upcoming gap in manned space exploration from 2010 to 2015 and what we should do about it.
Hat tip to ArgMax (John Irons) who also points to Scott Page's book which I have not had a chance to read yet, but plan to this summer. (Page was a professor of mine at Iowa back in the day.)
In other news...
I have been working on a project with a deadline of this week, hence the lapse in blogging. That will improve soon enough, but still for a while I won't have much time to do much more than offer up some links. One thing that I do need to do is catch up on some old stuff (like this) that I bookmarked with the idea of blogging it later. Time to clear out the ol' RSS reader. The time for spring cleaning is soon over, but one can always do some "summer cleaning".
Already it has been a rather busy summer, and looks to continue that way. I'm teaching an MBA class (managerial econ) and having a blast with it. Trying to revise and create some new course materials when I have a spare moment. Of course there's always the family stuff going on too.
I ran a 5K a couple weeks ago and turned in a rather mediocre 27 minutes and change. I let myself get out of shape when I got out of grad school and am trying to turn it around. I'm doing another race in a couple weeks. Hopefully I'll do better...perhaps I'll even post a picture or two.
Conditions look more conducive for blogging next week. Until then, maybe a few more links out of the files of ancient history.
Posted by William Polley at 10:11 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack