Robert Gordon is a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating committee. He recently talked to David Leonhardt who writes for the NY Times' Economix blog:
"I would be surprised if most people on the committee didn't agree we are in a recession," he said. "But we certainly don't have a consensus." The committee is likely to wait until after it receives more data on the third quarter, which ended on Sept. 30, before making any decisions.
The big debate, Mr. Gordon said, is likely to be about when the recession began. Since employment peaked at the end of last year, there is a good argument for some date around Jan. 1, 2008. But economic output continued to grow in the first half of 2008, which would argue for a starting date closer to August or September. "It's going to be difficult to agree on a date," Mr. Gordon said.
Usually employment lags a bit. That makes dating this recession a bit unusual. I could argue as early as December 2007, but I'm now starting to think that it will be May, June, or July. August or September is too late, IMHO.
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