Second quarter productivity

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor today reported preliminary productivity data--as measured by output per hour of all persons--for the second quarter of 2009. The seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity change in the second quarter were:

6.3 percent in the business sector and 6.4 percent in the nonfarm business sector.

Productivity gains in both sectors were the largest since the third quarter of 2003, and were due to hours worked declining faster than output.

Brad DeLong says:

Wow. I knew this was coming, but even so... Wow!

Remember, folks, employment is a lagging indicator.  Productivity spikes like this and in 2003 are to be expected as GDP starts to turn back up before jobs.  Hence the title of DeLong's post "Let's give a warm welcome to the jobless recovery."

Things seem to be playing out as many expected.  Look for a recovery in GDP in the 2nd half, but unemployment probably hasn't peaked yet.  My own personal estimation is that this recession's drop in employment was more cyclical and less structural than in 2001, so the recovery in jobs should be somewhat more robust, but probably not much more so.

I'm working on a post or two on the labor market, but other duties will probably keep me busy for the rest of the day.