Recently in Weather Category

Thankfully, our location is safe from the floods that you have seen on national (and international) news. However, there are subtle reminders that we are not far removed from what is truly a natural disaster. As I drove through town yesterday, I saw trucks heading out of town towards the Mississippi carrying large quantities of concrete highway barriers. No doubt these were headed for the river to be used as traffic control or as part of a temporary flood barrier. When you see things like that heading out in the direction of trouble, you realize how close you are. Local radio stations have been broadcasting road closures and bridge closures as part of the newscasts. My weather radio woke me up yesterday with an alert for the levee breach in Gulfport.

We are approximately 40 miles from the Mississippi at Keokuk and about 45 miles from both Fort Madison and Burlington, Iowa. For a brief time, I believe all three bridge crossings were closed (and Quincy was down from 4 lanes to 2). At last report, the bridge at Burlington is still closed, Fort Madison is open, and Keokuk is advised for local traffic only. Fortunately, we have not needed to cross the river lately.

All this flooding is due to rains in northern and central Iowa a couple of weeks ago. Hence, the tributary rivers on the Illinois side are fine. (UPDATE: Let me restate that... tributaries on the Illinois side are not at record levels, and some are not even at flood stage. Some are, however, above flood stage, but nothing like those in Iowa.) This also means that while Iowa suffered from incredible floods, worse than the big flood of '93, as the water moves down the Mississippi, the effects will diminish. In '93, the Missouri and other rivers were swollen as well. This pushed the water higher at St. Louis. This time around, the major tributaries just above St. Louis (the Missouri and the Illinois) are fine. The Mississippi has a lot of room to spread out there, and so everything from St. Louis and below should stay well below the '93 levels... as long as we don't get a lot of rain.

I moved to Iowa City/Coralville in 1994 to start grad school. There were still reminders of the '93 flood around town, and lots of stories from grad students who had been through it (mostly having to do with the effects of lack of showering and confined office spaces). There were some pictures, though those were pre-digital photo and pre-Internet days. What I am seeing on Flickr and on the Press-Citizen websites are a lot worse than the pictures I saw back then. So many of my old haunts were completely underwater--over a person's head. Just incredible.

In most places, the water is receding or will be shortly. Then the cleanup begins.

Storms are rumbling across Kansas tonight. That often means that I'll be waking up to them in the morning. Here's a Doppler radar image taken recently. The spot of green and red mixed together west of Emporia is a possible tornado. This is a classic picture of what a tornado signature looks like on the Doppler. Whether or not it actually spawned a funnel cloud and touches down to truly become a tornado is unclear. But if I saw that heading for me I'd hunker down.

They'll sweep across Missouri overnight and cross the river around dawn. If they still have any punch left, it will be an interesting morning. We will see.

UPDATE: The worst of it stayed to the south. Southern Illinois got some of it. My weather radio alerted to one severe T-storm warning this morning and that was it. But you could see rather early in the evening last night that this had the potential to be a significant overnight event. It was just a matter of where.

It is severe weather season around here, so this is a good time for this kind of announcement. For many years I have had a radio capable of receiving National Weather Service broadcasts. But in the internet age, I rarely use it. I go to the web, watch the radar, get the scoop on the severe weather prognosis for the day (if something is expected), and just keep track of what's going on in the atmosphere. My radio did not have an alarm that would alert you in the event of a warning. It was basically an ordinary radio.

So this weekend, I bought one with the alarm that will go off when there is a warning specifically for your county or a county near you.

This morning, we had a line of thunderstorms move through very early (which is unusual but not unheard of).

The alarm worked. It was loud enough to wake a sound sleeper like me.

Fortunately, it was not a tornado, and our neighborhood escaped anything too severe. But still... it is that time of year, and early morning storms do happen. I seldom get caught off guard by severe weather during the day, but nighttime storms can be deadly.

A good "all hazards" radio with an alarm can be had for around $30. If you live in tornado alley, it's a good addition to your bedroom.

Longtime readers will know that I am somewhat of a weather buff. This spring, I finally managed to get to a storm spotter training session put on by our local National Weather Service office. If you enjoy weather and live in a tornado prone area (and I know a few economists who do...is it a forecasting thing?), you should go to one of these sessions too.

Janet at SCSU Scholars reports that in Minnesota they had snow. Somewhat hopefully, she titles the post "Last snow?" I don't know. I remember some April snow, including one as late as about April 29. I remember the date because it was study day before final exams.

I do not miss April snow. I want to be out on the soccer field in shorts with the kids this weekend.

This does not look good. From the National Weather Service:

A major ice storm will move through the region tonight through Tuesday night spreading a large swath of freezing rain across the mid-Mississippi valley. Ice accumulations of one half inch to around one inch are expected along and south of Highway 34 including the Memphis MO, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Keokuk, Burlington and Macomb areas. Between Highway 34 and a line through Williamsburg, Iowa City, Clinton and Sterling ice accumulations around one half inch could occur. Areas to the north will see a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow with ice accumulations around a quarter of an inch and snowfall amounts up to 3 inches.

Ice accumulations from this storm system couild result in significant damage to trees and power lines. Power outages should be anticipated especially in the south were heavier ice accumulations are expected. The ice will also cause difficult if not impossible travel conditions.

The adverse weather with this storm system will affect a large area of the midwest. Ice Storm and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect from the southern plains through the mid-Mississippi valley.

Good thing I just bought 100 pounds of ice melting chemicals for the driveway and sidewalks. All of my final exams are tomorrow. At least that's the plan. Students are to watch the WIU web page for any announcements.

At this time of year, it is not unusual for students coming to my office hours to remark about the view I have from my office. It is nice to be able to see the change in colors from one day to the next. And in the fall, the skies in the midwest are often a beautiful deep blue. My office faces west, so the sunsets are nice too.

The Dead Parrot Society links to this map of world sunlight and cloud cover with the comment, "This is very cool."

Ditto.

At the Macomb airport, the current sustained winds are 32mph with gusts to 40mph. Peak gust today was 44mph. Batten down the hatches and man the pumps, it's a wild weather day in the midwest.

The sustained winds are at 175 mph as of this mornings reports. The increase in intensity has been truly amazing. The pressure reading was 882 millibars, breaking the old record of 888 millibars for the lowest pressure reading in the Atlantic basin.

This page from the National Weather Service will carry the latest updates.

CNN also has an article up.

If we have more tropical storms before the end of the season, they will be named after Greek letters (alpha, beta, gamma,...). This is the first time since the naming of storms began that we have used all the names. Q, U, X, Y, and Z are not used. We have also tied the records for most named storms (21) and most hurricanes (12) in the Atlantic basin in a season.

From IN-FORUM (registration req'd):

BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) - North Dakotans were bracing for the first major snowstorm of the season, with some areas of the state expecting as much as 8 inches just a few days after high temperatures topped 90 degrees.

Forecasters said a storm developing over the Rocky Mountains was expected to move into the Northern Plains on Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing a mix of rain and snow. More than 6 inches of snow was possible in southwestern and central North Dakota, with possibly up to a foot in the northeast.

I miss a lot of things about the "north country". Snowstorms in (early) October are not on the list.

Northern Illinois University has a staff meteorologist. His concern is obvious in what follows. (Hat tip: Cold Spring Shops)

Note, I'm not sure if the link is stable of if it always updates to give the lastest info. In any case, I'll quote from the 3:30CDT brief.

Rita. I looked at the latest model data and I just shook my head. Here's what the media and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) AREN'T telling you: the model late this morning shifted the track eastward from what they are showing here as of 11 AM Monday:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/153924.shtml?5day

The latest GFDL model, one of the best hurricane models out there, is in fact showing a 150 MPH hurricane (strong category 4) slamming into New Orleans on Friday, with the NHC model taking it right through the city as well. The official NHC track will be adjusted eastward later today; they like to be conservative and want to make sure this thing is heading into Louisiana before they cause inevitable alarm along the Gulf coast. However, they should have 60 hours of lead time on this one, wherever it heads inland. The Gulf of Mexico has recovered almost completely from Rita; the coolest water temperatures are at 86 degrees, and 85 degrees will easily support a major hurricane. All indications are that Rita will intensify rapidly once it gets by Florida and increase to a category 4 or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale with sustained winds of 135 MPH and higher. Barring unforeseen miracles, this should hit the U.S. as a potentially catastrophic hurricane around Friday somewhere along the Texas or Louisiana Gulf coast, potentially as strong as Katrina.

As of 1 AM, here were the forecast model and NHC forecast tracks of Rita. The latest GFDL, not shown, is further east and is near the track of the "NHC98" model which also takes it into New Orleans.

http://weather.admin.niu.edu/rita.gif

Again, since this image was produced, most of the models that have just been run have shifted the forecast further eastward.

Here's the latest from the National Weather Service. The forecast track has indeed been revised eastward. Remember, the east side of the eye wall has the strongest winds and the strongest surge because of the combined speed of the rotation and the forward movement.

Zoom capability and overlays showing levee breaks and approximate flooded area. Very well done. From the Associated Press. The photo is from 10am on Wednesday, Aug. 31.

I've been following the progress of Hurricane Katrina throughout the day like everyone else. The media coverage of the approach of the storm can at times be frustrating to watch. Generally speaking, I only watch The Weather Channel for analysis of hurricanes since it's the one place where the reporters actually know what they are talking about. For the latest from the National Weather Service, look at weather.gov.

At one point today, the pressure inside Katrina was the 4th lowest on record in the Atlantic Basin. It is a category 5 storm... nothing to mess around with. It's going to be a rough morning for the gulf coast. My prayers are with those in the affected areas.

I'm not the only economist who fancies himself an amateur weatherman. Phil Miller is a kindred spirit. And I know there are others.

If you're the type who grabs your camera when the skies turn black, you will appreciate this site from the National Weather Service. It is a new delivery format for their on-line radar images. NWS radar has been on the internet for years, so you might ask what's new about it. This product actually includes Doppler information on wind velocity. If you're in the midwest, that means you have the ability to see tornadoes as they form. Here is a "storm relative motion" radar image taken just a few minutes ago showing a suspected tornado. See the green spot just above the "g" in "Burlington"? That is an area of pretty intense rotation. When you hear them say on TV that Doppler radar indicated a tornado, this is what they mean. This is a very clear image of rotation; it's not always that easy to see.

The tornadoes will probably miss us, but the rain, wind, and hail will not. Last night it was in Phil's neighborhood, this afternoon it's in mine. Same weather system--a particularly nasty one.